Most Americans Think The Crime Rate Is Increasing, But Statistics Tell A Different Story

We’ve all heard a lot about crime in recent years, whether in viral videos of brazen retail theft or promises from politicians in both parties to bring back tougher penalties for law-breakers.

And the drumbeat of that narrative has prompted a wide-ranging belief among the American people that crime is on the rise nationwide.

According to the FBI, that’s simply not the case.

Reality vs. perception

While it’s true that the pandemic era did usher in a wave of crime, caused in large part by a reduction in enforcement and prosecution due to the unparalleled public safety threat. But as law enforcement standards have slowly returned to normal over the past few years, crime states have started to do the same.

Statistics recently released by the FBI revealed a few interesting facts about the final quarter of 2023 as compared to the same three-month period in the previous year:

• Murders decreased by 13%
• Violent crime was down 6%
• Property crime fell by 4%

Putting a finer point on the results, former CIA analyst Jeff Asher asserted: “It suggests that when we get the final data in October, we will have seen likely the largest one-year decline in murder that has ever been recorded.”

Identifying the disconnect

So if crime is trending downward, why did more than three-fourths of respondents in a recent poll say they thought the rate was increasing?

Criminologist John Roman has a theory, and it involves the way our brains calculate risk. He said that communities nationwide have seen a rise in disorder over the past five years, which has skewed perceptions.

“People confuse disorder and crime, so the presence of a lot of disorder can signal to regular folks that they are in a dangerous place when they aren’t necessarily in a dangerous place,” he said.

Chris Agee March 20th, 2024

Share this story: