Move Over, Summer: Rolling Blackouts Could Soon Become A Winter Thing, Too

People living in various regions of the U.S. and beyond have faced each summer with the threat of blackouts (or less drastic brownouts) due to the strain on power grids caused by widespread AC use.

Those concerns are still prevalent, but a growing number of experts think that winter will soon be subject to similar uncertainties.

A troubling trend

It’s been a foregone conclusion for generations that there’s simply more demand for electricity during the summer months. But a recent study from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation identified evidence that things are changing pretty rapidly:

• A decade ago, we used 11% less electricity in winter than during summer
• At the current pace, that gap will shrink to just 8% within another decade
• By 2050, it’s likely that more power will be needed in winter than summer

There are several causes, including aging infrastructure that becomes less efficient during the cold months and an increased demand for electricity-based heating from businesses and residences. Additionally, the reduced sunlight during these months means that solar panels yield significantly less energy.

And the embrace of electric vehicles, for all of their environmental benefits, are only adding to that demand.

An uncertain future

It’s clear that the rise in electricity demand during winter is already outpacing the summer increase and experts are already discussing ways to get ahead of the problem before people are faced with dire consequences.

Robert McCullough, who owns an energy consulting firm, acknowledged that “we’re entering a period where we don’t know what’s going to happen next.”

In the short term, folks like utility industry insider Calvin Butler advise against giving up on fossil fuels altogether.

“It just reinforces the need to have natural gas within the system,” he concluded. “You’re going to need gas for the foreseeable future.”

Chris Agee February 6th, 2024

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