This Year’s Midterms Were More Historically Significant Than You Might Think

Political pundits on both sides of the aisle were expecting a so-called “red wave” in last week’s midterm election. After all, voters said they trusted Republicans more to deal with the economy, and President Joe Biden’s approval numbers have been circling the drain for nearly two years.

But widespread GOP victories didn’t materialize — and that’s pretty shocking for anyone who’s been paying attention to historical trends.

A referendum on the president

The first midterms after a new president is elected have typically resulted in landslide wins for the opposite party. Americans tend to prefer a divided government so that one side doesn’t have all of the power in D.C.

This year, however, Democrats were able to fend off Republican rivals in several key races.

Just think back to a few of the most recent examples.

Two years after President Barack Obama’s first win, the Republican Party rode a wave 2010 election to secure 63 new seats in the House. Four years earlier, Democrats made some serious congressional gains in the first midterm elections after President George W. Bush’s re-election.

A similar trend can be tracked throughout midterms dating back decades, but 2022 defied those expectations.

Republicans look for an excuse

All of the signs were clearly pointing toward major GOP wins on Tuesday. While there were a few resounding victories, such as a lopsided re-election victory for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, numerous other races ended with Republican losses or results that are still too close to call.

There were many factors at play, but one popular scapegoat appears to be former President Donald Trump. The divisive political figure hand-picked many of the candidates who underperformed on Election Day — and his status within the party seems to be on the decline as a result.

Chris Agee November 14th, 2022

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